Ted Cruz Campaign Claims Early Edge in Senate Primary

The Ted Cruz campaign for the U.S. Senate seat that KBH is leaving is claiming an early victory in the all important fundraising race this quarter.  Not only is Cruz claiming victory in fundraising, but the memo below digs deeper and says Cruz is leading the pack with a wide base of grassroots support.

Below is the memo from the Cruz campaign.

The first quarter FEC fundraising reports for the 2012 Texas US Senate election are now public.  The results offer clear guidance for any conservatives still on the fence between Ted Cruz and Michael Williams.  By any measure, the Cruz campaign is in the strongest position.

As noted in this press release, Cruz raised more than $1 million in 10 weeks, for an average of over $100,000 a week.  The campaign received more than 1,100 contributions from over 900 unique individuals in 122 Texas cities and 37 States.

Specifically, the Cruz campaign raised $1,012,885 and has $965,153 cash on hand.

These Q1 numbers are even more striking when compared to the rest of the field:

Key Points

Cruz vs. Michael Williams

Michael Williams is the only candidate who is seriously attempting to contest Ted for the support of (1) conservative leaders, (2) grassroots activists, and (3) Tea Party leaders. But Michael Williams failed to raise sufficient funds to be able to compete in a statewide primary, especially against multiple candidates who have the ability to self-finance.

  • In Q1: Cruz out-raised Michael Williams by a ratio of 2.5:1.
  • $1,012,885 to $414,119
  • In Q1: Cruz’s cash on hand is nearly four times Michael Williams’s cash on hand.
  • $895,153 to $237,210 (less current debts)
  • In Q1: Cruz received over three times the contributions as Michael Williams (3.3:1.).
  • Cruz: 1,147 Contributions; Michael Williams: 343 Contributions.
  • In Q1: Cruz received donations from 122 Texas cities, compared to Michael Williams’s 70.
  • In Q1: Cruz received donations from 37 States, compared to Michael Williams’s 16.
  • On Facebook, Cruz has 57,293 supporters, compared to Michael Williams’s 7,896.

Cruz vs. Roger Williams

Roger Williams, whose fundraising strength is often touted after decades of raising money for other Republican campaigns, raised only $593,830.

  • In Q1:  Cruz out-raised Roger Williams by a ratio of nearly 2:1.
  • Roger Williams’s contributor support is largely limited to the Ft. Worth area – approximately 60% of his contributions are from the Ft. Worth area. 
  • Only 30% of Roger Williams’s total raised came from outside the Dallas-Ft. Worth area.

Cruz vs. Tom Leppert

Leppert is the only candidate who raised an amount comparable to Cruz in Q1.  Even so, Leppert’s support is limited geographically and is dominated by a handful of donors who maxed out.

  • Almost all the money Leppert raised is from the City of Dallas — a remarkable 78%.
  • Leppert has virtually no support outside of Dallas:
  • Houston:          9 Contributors
  • San Antonio:    1 Contributor
  • Austin:             1 Contributor
  • Midland:          0 Contributors
  • The Valley:      0 Contributors
  • Politically, Leppert’s record as Mayor of Dallas is demonstrably out of step with the values of the Texas primary voters.  Indeed, it is difficult to see a credible path for a moderate-to-liberal Mayor of Dallas to win a statewide Republican primary in Texas.

Cruz vs. Elizabeth Ames Jones

Jones experienced a very challenging fundraising quarter.  It is hard to formulate a scenario wherein Jones is able to compete statewide.

  • Cruz out-raised Jones by a ratio of nearly 10 to 1.
  • Cruz’s cash on hand is 750% greater than Jones’s cash on hand (less current debts):
  • $895,153 to $128,542.
  • Jones spent $304,371 in Q1 – twice what her campaign raised.  The Jones campaign’s burn rate was almost six times higher than the Cruz campaign’s.

Conclusions

  • Cruz’s financial support is broad, deep, energized, and enthusiastic.  It spans Texas, rather than being geographically concentrated in a single city.  And it is national, unlike the rest of the field’s.  It appears that the other candidates have primarily tapped their friends and family in their home cities, and have limited support outside their geographic bases.  In contrast, Ted’s financial support is statewide and growing.
  • In the “sub-primary” to determine the strongest conservative candidate in the race, Cruz is in by far the strongest position.  Indeed, numerous national conservative commentators and grassroots leaders publicly (1) expressed concern that Michael Williams could not raise enough funds to run a credible statewide campaign against a deep-pocketed self-funder, and (2) stated that they would choose between Cruz and Michael Williams based in significant part on who could raise the most money to run a strong conservative campaign.  Nevertheless, Michael Williams was only able to raise just over $400,000, and in Q1 Cruz raised 2 ½ times as much.
  • In order to mount a credible statewide campaign in the Republican Primary, a candidate will need at least $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 to communicate with voters from January 2012 through Election Day.   Michael Williams is not on a path to raise those funds.
  • To be sure, a candidate with significant name identification among primary voters could conceivably compete with less than $10,000,000.  However, multiple statewide polls have demonstrated that none of the current candidates has substantial name ID.  Indeed, despite Michael Williams’s having served in a down-ballot elected position for many years, he and Cruz are statistically tied in statewide name ID.  With the exception of Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, voters simply do not know any of the candidates, and it will take serious financial resources to change that in a state as large as Texas.
  • This race will come down to two questions:
  1. Which candidate is best prepared to stand up and fight to stop the Obama agenda?
  2. If Lt. Governor David Dewhurst chooses to enter the race, which candidate is the strongest alternative to Dewhurst?

The Q1 fundraising results—combined with the Ted’s proven record winning conservative battles nationwide and remarkable statewide grassroots team (over 57,000 supporters on Facebook)—indicate that the answer to both is Ted Cruz.

Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert’s campaign quickly responded with the message below.

“We agree that some candidates clearly planted a marker with impressive fundraising numbers.  The problem with the Cruz memo is that it is missing a few key elements, most importantly that the best-funded, proven conservative is Tom Leppert, who has a more than two-to-one cash advantage.  Second, Tom raised his funds in just over a month and, while he’s just getting started, he clearly has the fundraising momentum,” said Leppert spokesman Shawn McCoy.

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One response to “Ted Cruz Campaign Claims Early Edge in Senate Primary

  1. Lela Pittenger is also another candidate that is running for the United States Senate seat from Texas. Her views are very intriguing and worth considering. You should research her stance on the issues, I think that you might agree with her common sense approach.

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