A new Texas Tribune/UT poll released today on the US Senate race indicates that the proven conservative Ted Cruz continues to surge and he’s headed to a runoff with Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.
Here’s a summary of the new independent, statewide poll:
- Dewhurst is at 38%, Cruz 27% and the next two candidates are 20 points behind at 7%.
- This means the race is headed for a runoff between Cruz and Dewhurst.
- Despite being in statewide office for 14 years and having universal name ID among GOP primary voters, the Lt. Governor is far from closing in on the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. And Cruz is in a solid second place, and surging strongly.
- A runoff would overwhelmingly favor Cruz, given that the most engaged and conservative voters would dominate a runoff – informed conservative voters are a nightmare for Dewhurst.
- Here’s how UT pollster Jim Henson summarizes the situation: “Cruz is in the advantageous position right now of, for the most part, defending his ideas against Dewhurst’s record. In the last few cycles, that’s been a good place to be, and not to be the person who’s having to defend your actions in government.”
- Henson added these numbers are a “yellow flag” for Dewhurst. And the Texas Tribune noted that Cruz is looming in the rearview mirror of Dewhurst.